tags: #publish links: [[Cognitive Biases]], created: 2022-03-04 Fri --- # Smooth-Sailing fallacy > The smooth-sailing fallacy, where people assume that a lack of recent tremors and storms means that there is no risk. From [[Good Strategy, Bad Strategy - The Difference and Why It Matters (Richard Rumelt)]] Related: [[Heuristics That Almost Always Work]] [[SLOs and rare events]] [[Risk-seeking incentives]] [[When the tide goes out, that's when you find out who's been swimming naked]] [[The Inside View fallacy]] [[Social Herding fallacy]]